Electric mobility in 2025: growth prospects and challenges ahead

The future of electric mobility is on the rise, despite some difficulties and challenges ahead. China leads the industry among manufacturers and is the leading market for electric cars, followed by Europe and the United States. These are estimates from the International Energy Agency’s (Iea) “Global Ev outlook 2024,” which also reveal, a scenario characterized by an overall lowering of electric car prices. This is due to a reduction in the cost of lithium batteries and intensified competition, and they could reach price parity with combustion vehicles by 2030. Let’s find out the concrete prospects for growth with a focus on the Italian and international realities.

Electric mobility: the Italian lag, Ecobonus and charging stations

The electric car sector in Italy lags behind the rest of Europe, but a positive rebound in registrations is expected thanks to the2024 Ecobonus incentives, and there has been a significant increase in public charging stations, which have more than doubled in the past two years. As reported on the Confcommercio website, the incentive amounted to 13,750 euros, an increase of 25 percent over 2023 for those with ISEE indicator up to 30 thousand euros 11 thousand for higher rectites) and scrapping a car between Euro 0 and Euro 2. The fund was exhausted at its opening in just 8 hours on June 3, 2024 in a fierce “click day.” One can check the available funds on the Mise website. Regarding charging stations, although the pace of installations is expeditious (the PNRR envisages 41 thousand charging stations by the end of 2025), as reported by Motus-E, the authorization process of the supply chain is slow and 18 out of 100 charging stations are neither activated nor connected.

Iea: price parity between electric and gasoline cars expected by 2030

For theInternational Energy Agency ‘s (Iea) “Global Ev outlook 2024” in 2024, the growth of electric mobility remained steady. Even in 2024, China was the leading producer and market for electric cars, growing at a fast pace. Europe and the US followed. Italy lags behind, but the effect of incentives is expected and charging infrastructure is growing. In the main electric vehicle (Ev) markets, in fact, diffusion continues apace, reaching 18 percent of all cars sold. The sector’s growth, according to the latest reports (research firm Rho Motion), has been positive; by 2024 the number of electric cars sold worldwide reached 17.1 million units, thanks in part to a surge in December (up 5 percent from November), beating the 2023 record of 14 million cars sold. Global e-car sales were thus +25% over 2023.

Summary of the 2023-2024 electric car market and trends for 2025

Electric Mobility: Key Markets

Since 2023, the electric mobility market has surged; more than 250,000 electric cars were sold every week in 2023, practically more than the number sold in an entire year just ten years ago. By the end of the year, 40 million electric vehicles were on the roads around the world. Leading the industry, as already highlighted, is China: Chinese automakers produced more than half of all electric cars sold globally in 2023, despite accounting for only 10 percent of global sales of cars with internal combustion engines.

Global comparison between 2023 and 2024

The data, based on analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and studies conducted by Motus-E and Bloomberg NEF can be summarized as follows:

1. Global dissemination:

1. • By the end of 2023, there were 40 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the road worldwide.
   • More than 250,000 electric cars were sold each week in 2023, a figure higher than the annual total a decade earlier.

2. Main markets:

1. • China: Leading in production and sales, with 60% of global EV sales in 2023 and a market share projection at 45% by 2024. More than 60% of electric cars sold in the country are already cheaper than internal combustion vehicles.
   • Europe: 25% of global sales in 2023, with forecasts stable for 2024. Higher costs than conventional vehicles persist, but price parity could be achieved by 2030.
   • US: 10% of sales in 2023, expected to grow to 11% due to falling battery costs and increased competition among manufacturers.

3. Cost of batteries:

1. • Significant reduction: from $1400/kWh in 2010 to less than $140/kWh in 2023. This trend encourages greater affordability of electric cars.

4. Outlook for 2035:

1. • If climate goals are met, two-thirds of global car sales could be electric, saving 12 million barrels of oil per day.

Europe and electric mobility: stagnation, protectionism and strategies

The Euronews editorial group highlights a market estimate of +21% for battery electric vehicles, then a significant drop from the 27% expected in the first half of 2024 (data from S&P Global). Let’s see what were the causes of this decline.

1. Protectionism and tariffs:
   • The EU has introduced high tariffs for Chinese EV manufacturers such as Geely(18.8 percent), BYD(17 percent) and SAIC(35.3 percent) to counter “unfair” competition due to Chinese subsidies.
   • This could make BEVs more expensive, further reducing demand for them, especially in the context of a cost-of-living crisis in Europe.
2. Impact on the reduction of CO2 emissions:
   • Lower use of BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles) will make it more difficult for the EU to meet its 2025 carbon emission targets.
   • BEVs were considered critical to manufacturers’ strategies to reduce emissions.
3. Other solutions adopted:
   • High- and low-emission producer partnerships.
   • Focus on more efficient vehicles.
   • Use of mild-hybrid technologies (electric motors supporting conventional motors).

Czech Transport Minister Martin Kupka stressed* that the EU risks losing ground to the United States and China without a targeted industrial plan. In this regard, more flexible systems are needed to help manufacturers meet emission reduction targets. Sigrid de Vries ofACEA pointed out* thatstagnation in the BEV market represents an imminent crisis, with European transport decarbonization policy at risk despite significant industry investment. A clear and pragmatic strategy for the green transition is therefore needed. The combination of falling demand, high compliance costs, and trade protectionism could hamper EU efforts to decarbonize the transport sector. Without targetedaction, the achievement of environmental goals for 2025 and beyond (2030) is seriously jeopardized.

Focus on Italy.

Regarding the Italian situation, these three key aspects emerged:

1. Falling sales in 2024:

1. • In the first five months of 2024, 21,424 electric cars were sold, down 19.2 percent from 2023. As of May 2024, monthly registrations were down to 5,021 units (compared to over 6,000 in 2023).
   • The market share of electric cars in Italy is only 2.78 percent, much lower than countries such as the Netherlands (30.17 percent) and Belgium (22.82 percent).

2. Prospects for growth:

1. • The Ecobonus 2024 incentives, which ended immediately, indicate growing interest, but require more structured policies to sustain the market in the medium term.

3. Charging infrastructure:

1. • Public charging points have more than doubled in two years, reaching 54,164 as of March 2024. However, 58 percent are concentrated in northern Italy, highlighting an infrastructure gap with the center and south.

Growth trends for 2025

1. Global markets:

1. • Competition among manufacturers, advances in technology, and lower battery costs will foster steady growth.
   • Electrification of emerging economies remains an unknown: countries such as India (only 2 percent of sales in 2023) and regions such as Africa and the Middle East still show very low penetration rates.

2. Italy:

1. • Growing interest and investment in infrastructure points to a potential recovery in 2025, provided more effective incentive policies are distributed evenly across the territory.

85 million by 2025 by 2025: Gartner forecasts

Per Gartner, there will be 85 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the road globally by the end of 2025, with China and Europe leading the market. This is expected to increase by 33 percent from 2024, despite challenges related to delayed model launches and infrastructure issues. Growth and distribution:

• China and Europe dominated: 58 percent of global EV sales will come from China and 24 percent from Europe, together accounting for 82 percent of the world market.
• Type of EV:
  • Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs): They will account for 73 percent of the total, up 35 percent from 2024, reaching nearly 62 million units.
  • Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs): Will grow 28 percent to 23 million units.

Key role of battery recycling: Growing demand for EV batteries puts pressure on raw material resources. Gartner predicts that by 2030, 95 percent of EV batteries will be recycled, thanks to regulations (such as those in the EU) and industry initiatives.

• Benefits of recycling:
  • Reduction in the need to extract new minerals;
  • Lower costs, making EVs more affordable;
  • Lower environmental impact by preventing improper disposals.

Despite obstacles such as supply chains and infrastructure, the future of EVs looks promising. By 2030, a focus on sustainability and recycling will be crucial to meeting growing demand and ensuring the economic viability of the global EV market.  

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